A public lecture by László Bruszt, Professor Emeritus of Political Science, Central European University and Ivan Nagornyak, NGO EasyBusiness, Ukraine
Time: March 30, 15:30–17:10 CET/16:30-18:10 Kyiv time
Abstract:
This lecture examines the analytical and empirical challenges of studying Ukraine’s EU integration. The key point of the talk is that the mainstream study of enlargement provides weak tools to the understanding of the political challenges of enlargement both in Ukraine and in the EU. The mainstream study of enlargement focuses on the process of meeting the membership criteria of the EU. It treats integration as a largely technocratic process of conditionality and compliance and it misses the exploration of the social, economic and political effects of implementing 100 thousand pages of EU rules in dozens of policy areas. The economic and social effects could range from considerable increase in the developmental opportunities of large sectors and regions to the the complete marginalisation of whole regions and diverse categories of economic actors resulting in dramatic increase in social inequalities. Depending on the way Ukraine and the EU treats these “externalities” of rule implementation in the pre-accession period, the longer term political effects can range from the coming about of a broad-based alliance of beneficiaries of integration ready to defend the EU mandated rules, to the emergence of Orban 2.0 type of illiberal eurosceptic, sovereigntist movements. The way these potential effects are managed will largely shape what kind of economic and political path will Ukraine have after accession. Similarly, the process of integrating a large and complex economy, like Ukraine, might have a wide range of positive and negative effects in the member states of the EU. The way these effects are politicised and managed will determine whether Ukraine can have a smooth and credible path to EU membership, or that she has to endure a long accession process with delays. Drawing on comparative political economy and the study of European governance, the lecture offers an analytical framework for the study of the political and institutional challenges of integration among economies at different levels of development. The key argument that the lecture makes is that the successful enlargement will require changes in the way the widening of the EU’s Single Market is governed both in the EU and in Ukraine. The lecture will sketch the contours of one such alternative — one that takes seriously both the political costs of leaving the governance unchanged and the strategic costs of indefinitely deferring the addressing of the political economy challenges of enlargement.